Trump’s Second Term Redraws US-Africa Trade Relations with Hardline, Transactional Approach

Donald Trump’s second term as US President, starting January 2025, has significantly reshaped trade relations across the globe, including Africa, marked by a transactional approach that prioritises US interests over traditional partnerships. His administration’s engagement with African nations so far reflects a strategy centred on US self-interest, marked by tariffs, aid reductions, and geopolitical manoeuvring. This approach often undermines long-standing agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), signalling a broader rejection of multilateral frameworks in favour of bilateral deals that serve the "America First" agenda. While AGOA is set to expire in September 2025, raising fears of economic disruption on the continent, a blanket 10% import tariff in place for African countries has essentially made the framework null and void.

Within Africa, Trump set his sights firmly on South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy and a key AGOA beneficiary. On February 1, 2025, Trump signed executive orders invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing national security concerns over South Africa’s racial discrimination and “genocide” against its white Afrikaner minority as well as  its December 2023 genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This brings to a head the deterioration of US-SA trade relations over the past twenty years. Nonetheless, South Africa, like other African countries, felt the immediate sting when Trump cut US aid on February 7, affecting programs like PEPFAR, which had provided $460 million in 2023 for HIV/AIDS efforts. Thereafter, the May 21 Oval Office meeting with SA President Cyril Ramaphosa turned contentious when Trump fixated on discredited claims of a "white genocide," overshadowing trade discussions.

However, the US’s stance against South Africa is the exception rather than the rule on the continent. Washington has negotiated with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Republic of the Congo, which has a vast mineral wealth, including cobalt and lithium. This spurred recent talks of billion-dollar US investments to exchange mineral access for security assistance against Rwanda-backed rebels. This bilateral deal not only aligns with Trump’s "America First" agenda, as it secures much-needed minerals, but also his ambitions to be seen as a peacemaker. While the wars in Gaza and Ukraine rage on, he will increasingly be looking for success as a peacemaker. Other African nations have navigated the Trump protectionist landscape with varying success. Nevertheless, Trump’s protectionist policies risk pushing African nations toward China, already the continent’s largest trading partner, with a trade volume five times that of the US. By ignoring broader African priorities shaped by economic, social, and environmental challenges, the US risks losing influence on the continent to China and Russia. Furthermore, Africa’s growing global centrality, driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), gives it leverage to pivot to alternative partners. As an example, South Africa, a BRICS member, is increasingly aligning with China and the EU, which reaffirmed support earlier this year.

Overall, Trump’s trade relations with Africa, through the lens of South Africa and beyond, reveal a policy of disruption rather than partnership. More on Trump’s plans for the continent will become clearer when he is expected to host the US-Africa Summit in New York later this year.  While the administration aims to reshape global trade in America’s favour, the collateral damage to African economies suggests a strategy that may backfire, challenging the narrative of unilateral dominance.

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